The WPS project "Local Engagement in Iraq and Natural Causes of Armed Conflict" aims to unravel the complex causal relationships between natural causes and armed conflict outcomes within Iraqi municipalities. This project stands out for its ambitious goal to methodically and scientifically pinpoint how climatological, environmental, and demographic factors intertwine to potentially escalate into armed conflicts.
IMPORTANCE This research is crucial as it ventures into a domain where traditional models have struggled, by employing advanced causal modeling techniques to dissect non-experimental observations. Understanding these relationships is not merely academic but pivotal for designing informed policy interventions aimed at conflict mitigation, hence making a significant contribution to both academic circles and practical policy formulation.
FEATURES What sets this project apart is its use of sophisticated causal inference methods to study a highly relevant but challenging topic. The approach circumvents ethical and practical limitations associated with experimental methods on sensitive issues like armed conflict by leveraging non-experimental data through innovative statistical methodologies.
METHODS The core methodology revolves around causal modeling, specifically designed to handle the complexities of non-experimental data. This approach enables the team to draw robust conclusions about the causal pathways linking natural variables like soil temperature and population density to conflict outcomes. The analysis is deeply rooted in the latest advances in causal inference, providing a fresh perspective on the dynamics at play in conflict-prone regions of Iraq.
COLLABORATORS The project involves collaboration between the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) and Water Peace and Security (WPS) Program, bringing together experts from diverse fields including environmental science, political science, and conflict studies. The inclusion of multiple perspectives enriches the analysis and enhances the reliability and applicability of the findings.